Future Design Inquiries. December 2024

Hello from your friends at enso, a future design company. Futures happen by default or by design. Here are some things we think push past the default. And we welcome your reactions, additions, and suggestions – reach out news@enso.co.

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What we’re reflecting on

These nuggets are curated by enso partners Hanna Siegel (HS) and Sebastian Buck (SB).

Generative chaos

We are in a moment (era?) where chaos has become the norm, and it’s unsettling to say the least. These past weeks in particular, I’ve found myself struggling to explain the world around me, because the logic frameworks that my brain knows just don’t match what’s happening. It’s a profound sense of cognitive dissonance. Cassie Robinson and Sophia Parker write that “Crisis and chaos can help us see what was unseeable before, revealing the hidden wiring and patterns in which we’ve been enmeshed and enabling us to disentangle ourselves sufficiently to regard those systems as objects of inquiry and the webs in which we exist.” Chaos, they say, can destroy norms but it can also open up possibilities. It can be destructive and it can be generative. But how do we generate from a reality that is so tangled? The Stanford Social Innovation Review’s latest publication, These Times Ask More of Us, has some ideas (Robinson and Parker’s quote is from the introduction). 

There are 5 sections: 

1/ How do we identify what is dying or needs to die, and how do we steward ourselves through that process? 2/ How can we build social imagination in order to make real change possible? 3/ How do we equip people to lead through these times? 4/ How can we rewire capitalism so that it works for everyone? 5/ What do we tether to when our relied upon navigational systems are unraveling? 

There is no playbook for our present. But I’ll take any guidance I can get – and this seems like a good start. (HS)

Is competition overrated?

Did you know that kids in Norway don’t have a competition component to their sports leagues? Before age 13, there are no playoffs or championships, no rankings – they don’t even keep score (similarly, kids don’t get grades in school until age 13). The emphasis, by design, is on participation, enjoyment, teamwork and personal development. That’s not to say Norway doesn’t value sports – clubs are often community-based and subsidized, which helps explain why 93% of Norway’s kids 13-18 participate in sports (versus 54% of US kids 6-17). Norwegian kids are also encouraged to try multiple sports – no specializing, hiring private coaches, joining tiny tots travel teams…just ‘Joy of Sport for All’, Norway’s stated mission. The government even has a ‘Children’s Rights in Sports’ document describing the type of experience every kid must be provided. It’s all the complete opposite of youth sports in the U.S. – and you can imagine the benefits. Fewer young athletes burned out, less pressure overall, fewer families dipping into their savings to afford the soccer club fees. Yet Norway produces excellent athletes, especially relative to their small size. It’s not in America’s nature to give up on ‘winning’ – that’s deeply embedded in our culture. But when we think about how we produce the winners, and what we prioritize for our kids, it’s worth considering what it would look like to design sports as more than just the competition. (HS)

Bold leaps: the experimenting society

At its worst, democracy is replacing one set of policy errors with another; new bandaids on old wounds, each sold with big claims but ultimately derived from ideological hunches. Seeking an alternative, the FT’s Tim Harford surfaced a fascinating 1971 presentation by Donald T. Campbell, ‘Methods for the Experimenting Society’ — a society that prefers exploratory innovation to inaction. “The experimenting society will vigorously try out proposed solutions to recurrent problems, will make hard-headed and multidimensional evaluations of the outcomes, and will move on to try other alternatives when evaluation shows one reform to have been ineffective or harmful.” What’s needed? ‘Exploring possibilities in action’, honesty in testing, and a learning mindset. “What I am proposing is a few of us the world over now self-consciously dedicate ourselves to being ‘methodologists for the experimenting society’ ”.  Let’s go Mr. Campbell. (SB)

Bold leaps: repeat entrepreneurs

Europe’s lagging tech industry has caused economic and geopolitical issues; in the past 14 years, Europe-wide GDP is 28 percent down versus trend. While the US has seven trillion-dollar companies, Europe has none. The US has 33 $100bn-plus tech companies; Europe has four. Why is that happening? Ian Hogarth’s answer is not regulation or universities or culture, it’s the ‘keystone species’ of repeat entrepreneurs. He makes the case that repeat founders have developed a craft that predisposes them to more success, that their appetite for impact drives them to build successively more ambitious companies, and they recycle ‘audacious capital’ back into the entrepreneurial ecosystem. One could argue that DeepMind is the most significant company of this generation, both through its work and its diaspora; it was started in London by repeat entrepreneurs, but found its audacious capital from the Google founders. One of the next great leaps, fusion energy, is being significantly funded by Sam Altman and Bill Gates — another instance where the enterprise mindset and institutional capital may not be bold enough to unlock the future we want. The good news? Appetite for impact and ambition are not in short supply. With the right support, the ‘keystone species’ could propagate significantly. (SB)

Bold leaps: optimal confidence

A recent Economist review on confidence offers two key takeaways: confident individuals thrive with thoughtful checks, like robust boards to temper ‘overconfident’ CEOs, while self-doubters flourish with encouragement, such as reflecting on past victories to unlock their potential. But it missed the distinction between confidence and hubris. True confidence embraces fallibility and learns from mistakes, while hubris clings to flawed forecasts and failed innovations. Intriguingly, research suggests that adopting a ‘small self’ mindset—a state of humility and interconnectedness—promotes ethics, generosity, and pro-social behavior. Experiences of awe, whether sparked by nature or grand missions, can shift even the most overconfident individuals toward this mindset. So, how do we inspire leaders to feel the awe of a larger purpose—or simply the vastness of the natural world? It's great that the World Economic Forum happens in the mountains; more C-suite and board meetings should start outside. 🌲(SB)

12 things that made us think, gasp, share and laugh:

• Surgeon General Vivek Murthy continues his crusade to tackle loneliness in America with a campaign to get Americans to eat together. (It’s wisely housed with a group of nonprofits, instead of with the Surgeon General’s Office, meaning it will continue even as the new administration takes hold).  
• More Nazca Lines = more better
• Employees’ life evaluation index hit an all-time low (this is why we’re so passionate about the Work Wellbeing initiative we designed with Indeed — if people aren’t doing well, companies can’t do well, and so on to infinity. It’s not that hard to interrupt the cycle… and create more profit in the process)
• In pursuit of ‘raw awe’ (which isn’t to discount the importance of ‘quick-boil awe’ either)
• Speaking of awe, Samantha Harvey's book Orbital (which just won the Booker Prize) is as good as everyone says it is; e.g. NYT: "The book is ravishingly beautiful."
• This essay (with pictures) on the Met’s exhibit of staff artwork. How cool to know that the security guards, administrators, janitors and other Met staff are first and foremost dedicated artists.  

• Typically, homes that produce excess solar energy can sell it back to the grid, offsetting their energy costs. Now, London-based Octopus Energy is offering another option – you can donate your excess energy to financially-strapped families who need it.
• Adam Mastroianni’s essay, Underrated ways to change the world, a reminder that there are many ways to have a real impact (money and connections not required). 
• Competitive tablescaping is a thing

• “Humans may be the only species that can imagine a future. But that doesn’t mean we’re good at it.” - so begins Adam Grant’s post-election thought train and it’s a good reminder that we can’t predict the future. (But we can – to a large extent – design it). 
• “When human creativity seems defeated, it’s actually gathering strength and waiting for its moment to erupt.” - Kirby Ferguson in his excellent video op-ed, Are Algorithms Killing Creativity? (thanks to enso collaborator Sarah Kay for flagging)
• An AI grandmother bores scammers to tears

What we’re working on

enso is a small, senior team so that we can work on just a few initiatives at a time. This allows us to go deep on some of the biggest challenges/ opportunities. Recently, we’ve been working on a few main missions with our partners:

1. A new enso website: We are a future design company that drives growth and positive impact that scales. We’ve been designing capitalism that works better for the last 12 years – learn about us, what we do and why we do it. 
2. Design The Future book: Distilling wisdom from those actively designing and creating the future, from a wide variety of fields.
3. Supporting one of the fastest-growing industries – e-commerce: Reimagining what it means to be a small business in a globalized, digital world. 
4. A brand to radiate optimism: We think restoring optimism in the world is essential. We're exploring building a product, content and community brand around this idea.
5. Radical leap stories around the world: Uncovering the stories of unlikely people creating and solving with technology. 
6. Engaging with the world’s talent leaders: How can we collaborate with leaders worldwide to build the future of work?

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